Will electric vehicle battery production be limited by the availability of essential metals?

Brief Will ElectricThe continuing supply of lithium and rare earth metals are extremely unlikely to pose a problem for the electric vehicle industry in the foreseeable future.

< Download PDF

As electric vehicles (EVs) and their lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries become more popular and production increases, growing quantities of raw materials will be required to manufacture them. Sensitised by the pending problem of “peak oil”, some people have questioned whether there are sufficient supplies of the various resources necessary for the production of EVs, in particular the lithium required for the batteries and the rare earth metals used in motors, some types of batteries, and electronics generally. This technical note will address these questions, and demonstrate why it is likely that such potential supply issues will be avoided.

Lithium is the unique metal that has underpinned the performance revolution in batteries for computers, mobile phones and now EVs. Are the world’s lithium supplies sufficient to provide for the coming transportation revolution and the consequent increase in demand? Following a conference examining the most recent data on this question, the chairman concluded: “What speakers in the Santiago event demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt is that lithium resources are large enough to cover any rationally conceivable demand”1. Specifically, known worldwide reserves amount to more than 150 million tonnes of lithium carbonate (the chalk from which metallic lithium is derived), capable of affording almost 30 million tonnes of lithium metal.

A common capacity for EV batteries today is 25 kWh. To conservatively calculate the lithium supplies required to meet future demand, we will assume here that next- generation vehicles will provide greater range by using batteries with around double this capacity, that is, 50 kWh. Current batteries require 0.6 kg of raw lithium carbonate to produce each kWh of battery capacity. If we conservatively expect to recover only 50% of known global reserves, we still have enough lithium to produce 2.5 billion 50 kWh batteries – well in excess of the estimated 1 billion petrol vehicles currently in existence2. Old batteries can be recycled to recover nearly all of their lithium for new battery production, dramatically increasing supplies in the longer term3. It is also likely that new reserves will be discovered, adding further to supply.

The so-called “rare earth elements” or REEs (the lanthanides such as neodymium and lanthanum, plus yttrium and scandium) are important ingredients in a wide range of industrial and consumer products. Though typically only required in very small quantities, these metals have become ubiquitous in modern technology, from catalysts for refining oil to the hard drives and LCD screens of our computers and mobile phones. They are also critical for many defence applications, from jet fighter engines to satellites to missile guidance systems, and are considered important for the national security of many countries4. REEs are also important ingredients in various EV components, including batteries and the magnets in electric motors.

In recent years, demand for REEs has outstripped supply, with the difference made up from existing stockpiles. Furthermore, global demand is projected to rise from 134,000 tonnes in 2010 to 200,000 tonnes in 2014, with annual production only reaching 80% of this level in this time frame5. China currently produces the majority of REEs, and also consumes a significant portion in its own manufacturing operations. Consequently, concerns have been raised about China’s near-monopoly on the production of these resources, and their ability to control and restrict supply to other countries.

Though China is responsible for 97% of current REE production, it controls only 36% of known global reserves (estimated at 99 million tonnes), which are also distributed between the USA (13%), Russia (19%), Australia (5.4%) and a range of other countries6. Due to concerns regarding Chinese control of the REE supply, the US and its trading partners are accelerating the development of their own REE mining and processing industries7, in an attempt to ensure diversity and continuity of supply.

At the estimated annual consumption rate of 200,000 tonnes in 2014, the known global reserves of 99 million tonnes represent a 500-year supply. Recycling and the development of new reserves will extend this period considerably.

Concerns about shortages are also helping to drive innovation to reduce dependence on REEs. For example, Continental Corporation, the world’s fourth-largest auto parts supplier, has developed a brushed synchronous motor that uses no rare earth metals, and that will be used in a European EV coming to the market next year8. An EV using the Continental motor should not require any more REEs than a petrol car, and any supply constraints are not expected to disproportionately impact EV production.

In conclusion, concerns regarding lithium supplies are unfounded, as there are sufficient global reserves to produce billions of batteries. In addition, recycling of old batteries will add to the lithium stockpile available for manufacturing of new cells. Rare earth elements are currently in short supply globally due to rapidly growing demand. However, the exploitation of untapped reserves outside China (and the discovery of new reserves) will provide a much more diverse range of supply in coming years. This will be bolstered by the ongoing development of new technology, which will reduce demand for these important metals.

References

  1. Data presented by geologist and renowned lithium expert R. Keith Evans to the conference on Lithium Supply and Markets, Santiago, Chile, January 2009. For details see: http://www.lithiumalliance.org/about-lithium/lithium-sources/56-an-abundance-of-lithium; http://www.prlog.org/10062026-world-lithium-reserves-found-to-be-abundant-in-new-report.html; http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/

  2. http://www.sequence-omega.net/2009/05/15/lithium-carbonate-supplies-abound/; (accessed January 2011)

  3. See Better Place Australia Technical Note, Do Lithium-Ion Batteries Support Sustainable Electric Vehicle Driving?

  4. U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 087-02; “Rare Earth Elements—Critical Resources for High Technology”; http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2002/fs087-02/ ; (accessed January 2011)

  5. US Congressional Research Service Report for Congress; “Rare Earth Elements: The Global Supply Chain”; Marc Humphries (July 28, 2010), and references contained therein; www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R41347.pdf; (accessed January 2011)

  6. http://www.theage.com.au/world/chinese-deny-rare-earth-block-on-japan-20100923-15ouc.html; (accessed January 2011)

  7. http://www.climatespectator.com.au/news/us-aims-end-chinas-rare-earth-metals-monopoly; (accessed January 2011)

  8. http://www.bnet.com/blog/electric-cars/forget-lithium-8212-it-8217s-rare-earth-minerals-that-are-in-short-supply-for-evs/1814; (accessed January 2011)